So with not much else to do on a Sunday (well…that’s a lie, I’m just wasting too much time beating this dead horse) I figured I’d do a little checking to Box Office trends and what expectations should be for this weekend, based on what we know already. Of course, much of this post will probably be defunct by this time tomorrow, but where’s the fun in that?
I’ve already reported that G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA actually dropped 16% in attendance from Friday to Saturday. I thought this was a bit distressing, and then I checked some film trends. Now, I’m actually still a little bit distressed about this, but not real upset. Looking at Box Office history this year, here are some big films, and the change in returns from Friday to Saturday of opening weekend, all based on numbers from Box Office Mojo:
Watchmen – Total Domestic Gross $107 million, International Gross $183 million. Opening weekend gross $55.2 million. Keep in mind, Watchmen was considered a financial failure. Change from Friday to Saturday was -25%.
Wolverine – Total Domestic Gross $179 million, International Gross $350 million. Opening weekend gross $85 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was -15%.
Star Trek – Total Domestic Gross $255 million, International Gross $382 million. Opening weekend gross $75 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was +1.3%.
Terminator: Salvation – Total Domestic Gross $124 million, International Gross $341 million. Opening weekend gross $42.5 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was -1.9%.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – Total Domestic Gross $394 million, International Gross $818 million. Opening weekend gross $109 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was +9%.
In pretty much every case here, the Sunday Box Office also dropped from Saturday, although only 10-15%. Both Wolverine and Watchmen seem to be the benchmarks, since they both dropped double digits from Friday to Saturday. Wolverine dropped another 27% on Sunday, Watchmen dropped 33%. I think those are both excessive, compared to G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA. Just for the sake of argument, I’ll shoot for a 20% decline for The Rise of COBRA from Saturday to Sunday, that would put Sunday’s total gross at $14.4 million. With that 14.4, that then puts the three day total at $54.9 million, which isn’t a bad number. It’s not the $60 million I was hoping to see, but it’s nothing to sneeze at. Of course, if Sunday drops even more, there could be problems.
Looking at Wolverine’s numbers, that film did manage to make over $340 million internationally, while Watchmen floundered at about $182. Let’s hope The Rise of COBRA trends more towards Mutants and less towards Alan Moore…
While Nikki Finke is a reliable source with some inside contacts, we also have a report from Reuters saying that G.I. Joe pretty much dominated the weekend box office, making an estimated $56.2 million in the three day span. Obviously these are all just estimates, something very important to understand.
So really, all of my yammering doesn’t mean squat until Monday, but it’s fun to talk about it, anyway… 🙂
In the end, it’s all out of our control, but I gotta admit, it’s been fun this year sitting back and enjoying the ride.
According to the previously mentioned website, Nikki Finke’s Deadline Hollywood Daily, the Saturday box office numbers for G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA came in at $18 million. I’m not sure if a Friday-Saturday drop is normal, but that puts the two-day total at $40.5 million. It seems somewhat doubtful that a Sunday showing would earn another $20 million, so I’d say a $60 million opening weekend is pretty much impossible. Looks like we may be headed more in the $50 million dollar range, depending on how strong Sundays usually are. I suspect I might even be giving Sunday sales even too much credit.
There are still no numbers internationally, so we’ll see how things look going forward. In my mind, this is disappointing news, but we’ll see where it goes.
Ms. Finke does add a bit of disappointing insight, with this quote as well:
“But I don’t see how G.I. Joe can get to Paramount’s predicted $300M worldwide. Especially when, next weekend, G.I. Joe will get swamped by Peter Jackson’s highly praised sci-fi blockbuster District 9.”
Considering Di Bonaventura has been on record saying they need at least $350 million before considering a sequel, this could be a punch in the gut. Still plenty of time to go, though. Again, check out the entire article here.
No new footage, and most folks have seen the movie by now, but with a nice quote from Joe fan and Rise of Cobra Supporter El Mayimbe of Latino Review, I have to give this TV Spot some credit and some coverage, anyway. Pulled from YouTube here.
Credit also goes to the Terror Drome’s “Terror Transmissions” for the encode!
Over the past week or so, it seems every article I’ve read on the Los Angeles Times website has been roasting the film, harassing Paramount, or making other snide or scoffing comments about recent decisions and process regarding G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA. Today, the LA Times posted another online article, about the Box Office Returns, and actually gave Paramount and G.I. Joe some credit:
“Given the movie’s $175-million production budget, that would be a solid start and, assuming audience word-of-mouth is strong, put it on track for a healthy box office run. According to market research firm CinemaScore, opening day moviegoers gave “G.I. Joe” a grade of B+, once again contradicting the view of critics, as they did on Paramount’s “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.” That would seem to validate the studio’s strategy to not screen the picture for print and broadcast critics before it opened and to focus much of the marketing at blue-collar audiences in smaller markets.”
Good to see at least a slight shift in perspective. Hopefully G.I. Joe’s final tallies are enough to make a lot of the pundits rethink their slamming of Paramount. But I doubt it.
Thanks to tkprime’s Twitter feed for letting us know that Electronic Arts has posted a cool little Flash game “Shuriken Shootout” on their website. Click here to check it out!
Just wanted to post a reminder to folks that Toys “R” Us is re-launching their 2 figures for $9.99 deal tomorrow! Here’s the original post.
Now, considering I have ZERO Toys “R” Us’ within 65 miles of me, if anyone wants to help out with a couple Pit Commandos, Eels, or anything of the sort, I certainly wouldn’t discourage anyone from tossing me a hook up… :shifty:
Perhaps I missed the conversation somewhere, but I just received this year’s San Diego ComicCon Design Sketchbook in the mail, and holy crap! There is some awesome stuff in here. There’s a fair share of Anniversary design sketches, but what’s really got me is the cool stuff that was either unused concepts or potential future stuff. I scanned a couple of pages below with what appear to be some very cool designs for Flint, Zarana, Storm Shadow, and a couple of other items that are unknown.
I especially LOVE that Storm Shadow. A spiffy new design that builds very nicely from the original look, yet looks current, too. Absolutely awesome! Check out just a small sample of the images below…there’s lots more in the book, too, from many of Hasbro’s different brands.
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Hopefully Hasbro will have this thing up for sale somewhere down the line. I haven’t seen it on HTS yet, but hopefully it’ll be out there. I love this stuff.
Thanks to Mysterious Stranger for pointing out Hollywood insider Nikki Finke, who has a VERY detailed report about G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA’s opening weekend on her website here.
She seems quite optimistic about the returns for the film financially (though she trends at about $55 million rather than the $60 million that Steve Mason reported on his blog just recently. I think Nikki’s got the inside track. Interesting quotes are as follows:
“Now, despite all the sniping and snarking, it looks to open for a $55M North American weekend after earning $22M today from a huge release into 4,007 theaters. The pic even made a ” B+” CinemaScore (“A-” for under 18).”
That sounds pretty good…she also talks about the international numbers.
“G.I. Joe also opened day and date in 75% of its foreign territories. Although I’ve heard reports from rival studios that ticket sales were “disappointing” in Australia (where the pic opened #2 to the Sony romantic comedy Ugly Truth), early numbers from Asia are said to be “huge”. One projection for overseas grosses this weekend is $35M…”
She also brings up some great points about royalties from toy sales and DVD sales. So far, things are sounding at least somewhat promising, but I’ll definitely be keeping my eyes on this throughout the weekend and going forward. Again, check out her entire article right here.
Though Box Office Mojo hasn’t yet updated it’s numbers, Steve Mason’s Blog reports that The Rise of COBRA exceeded industry expectations and hit $22.5 million it’s first day of release, and is on track to hit $60 million for opening weekend.
These are very strong numbers, but time will tell where we go from here. Lorenzo Di Bonaventura said that he wants $350 million internationally before moving forward on a sequel, so we’ll have to pay attention as these numbers keep going. I’ll keep everyone posted!
