Deadline Hollywood Daily and Box Office Mojo report that G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA dropped over 60% at the Box Office this Friday compared to last Friday, mostly due to the lack of midnight screenings, and the fact that District 9 is hitting the male audience very hard this week. Many of the online pundits are raising their glasses and toasting the “failure” of The Rise of COBRA to maintain a strong showing, in spite of it’s rocket launch last weekend, but I’m not especially concerned.
Even with the drastic drop off from last Friday, Rise of COBRA is projected to earn a potential $24 or $25 million this weekend, which would bring the domestic total very close to the $100 million mark, and combined with fairly furious international returns, by next week, G.I. Joe could break the $200 million barrier worldwide. Granted, Paramount has said they want $350 million to guarantee a sequel…that number looks a bit out of reach, but you never know.
I think if the film can come close to $300 million worldwide with a writers’ strike script, and some quick-cut edits right up to the last minute, I think Paramount will be willing to give it a second shot with a much more polished production and much more involvement with the COBRA side of things. Not sure I’d bet on Stephen Sommers returning, but only time will tell.