Deadline Hollywood Daily and Box Office Mojo report that G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA dropped over 60% at the Box Office this Friday compared to last Friday, mostly due to the lack of midnight screenings, and the fact that District 9 is hitting the male audience very hard this week. Many of the online pundits are raising their glasses and toasting the “failure” of The Rise of COBRA to maintain a strong showing, in spite of it’s rocket launch last weekend, but I’m not especially concerned.
Even with the drastic drop off from last Friday, Rise of COBRA is projected to earn a potential $24 or $25 million this weekend, which would bring the domestic total very close to the $100 million mark, and combined with fairly furious international returns, by next week, G.I. Joe could break the $200 million barrier worldwide. Granted, Paramount has said they want $350 million to guarantee a sequel…that number looks a bit out of reach, but you never know.
I think if the film can come close to $300 million worldwide with a writers’ strike script, and some quick-cut edits right up to the last minute, I think Paramount will be willing to give it a second shot with a much more polished production and much more involvement with the COBRA side of things. Not sure I’d bet on Stephen Sommers returning, but only time will tell.
I realize that when a movie “fails”, the fault usually falls on the director, but I do not blame Summers for what I feel is a bad GI Joe movie. I blame the writers for the script that was void of almost any connection to the comics or the cartoon. I also blame Hasbro for approving the script and not protecting the franchise as they should have. I’ll welcome a sequel, but they a huge creative hole to dig themselves out of.
oh the drama.
August is a crappy month to try and release a blockbuster. Had they released the movie in the middle of July (same weekend as TDK last year) it would have done much better.
Saturday and Sunday will be the big test. District 9 did pretty terrible opening wise on Friday, so I think we could see the momentum shift over the full weekend, but we’ll see.
From what I’ve been hearing, most parties are anxious to roll film on the next movie. Granted, the final tally will decide whether or not that movie is actually made, but once revenue from tickets (domestic & foreign), merchandising, and lest we forget, the all important DVD sales, I think even the most jaded bean counters will be satisfied.
Saturday made the big difference. While D9 did manage to win out (Bet it plummets next week) Joe finished a strong second bringing things up to nearly $100 million. It’ll probably bring in another 10 or 12 million next weekend and then simmer down but still manage to make it’s money back domestic.
Another movie that recently defied the Summer release numbers was the original Hellboy movie. It didn’t do so well domestically at the theaters, but the DVD release blew them away with it’s income tally. August is notoriously bad for major Blockbusters as stated before, but this film is the second highest grossing film in that slot EVER. That says it has legs IMHO. The DVD will likely have many extras that will boost it’s sales also. From what I am seeing on the toy kingdom from this movie (I put in a lot of hours at TRU) this movie is getting the same kid interest the first Transformers movie had, plus the adult “remember when” and parental purchases. There is a lot of buzz in the mass media still. When the green light goes on for the studio, I think they need to consider treating the story less like a b&w Flash Gordon vs the Moon Men and more like a Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back story; grit, action, drama and plenty of wow-effects.
Another thing to think about is how many of the movies are PG, PG-13 and R that work against or for these numbers. RoC had a lot of PG competition and D9 will not get the kids in the door.
I agree that if they handle the DVD release right, they will get a lot more money out of this. I plan to buy the Blu-Ray when it is released but if it doesn’t have extras, like an extended cut, I will be pissed something fierce.
In fact, what we should really be getting is a two for one deal like lots of movies do now, two versions in one package. The theatrical and the Director’s (usually labeled Uncut or Unrated). Then add on some interviews and commentary with the writers, director and actors, some short documentaries about the history of GIJoe, and such.
If that all happens, I will not only buy the movie, I will buy one for everyone on my Christmas list as well. If all we get is a cheap movie to disc, nothing else, I won’t bother.
So Paramount needs to market this well. If they have to, give us the choice. A regular version and a collector’s version. But make the collector’s version count. No lame deleted scenes section. Give us the extended version of the film so we can watch those scenes in context in the film.
Ah, why am I bothering even writing this….not like they can hear me…lol
Just saw it and it exceeded my expectations. My very low expectations! I had heard that the writing was really bad so the bar was set low, but when I looked at the film from the perspective of a 12 year old, I had a blast! This had great action, adolescent humor and one-liners, cool weapons and vehicles and, above all, cleavage! As a fan, a 37 year old fan, I’m disappointed because it could have been written much better. As a 25 year fan of the franchise, I say kudos. Hawkwinter is dead-on about the Blu-Ray (sounds like a Cobra sub!) and they would be foolish not to make a sequel. I mean, it can only get better right?
The movie is really good. Just do not take it too seriously. It’s a movie meant for kids, with some nods to long time fans. But this is not the RAH series from the 80s, and it’s not Larry Hama’s joe-verse (merely based from it). And there really is nothing wrong with that. This is a new G.I. Joe for a new generation, and it’s great.