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With final numbers now in the books, G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA has finished just short of industry estimates, netting $54.7 million domestically and $99.7 million worldwide, narrowly missing the $100 million benchmark.  Opinion seems mixed across the ‘net at what effect the opening of District 9 will have against the family-friendly PG13 rated Rise of COBRA.

My own personal take?  I think District 9 will hurt box office numbers more than folks think.  Yeah, it’s rated “R”, but I’m sure there was a big bulk of Joe audience members who were 17-35 year old men who dig science fiction and fantasy, and District 9 is right in that wheelhouse.  It doesn’t have the advertising behind it, but I think it might end up surprising folks.

As I’ve been saying, time will tell, but I just wouldn’t be surprised to see a 55 or 60% drop next weekend.  Hopefully the film has enough legs to carry on release for a few more weeks and get some money in the bank.  I don’t mean to have a pessimistic outlook, this is just sort of reminding me of another film of a property that I was a big fan of, Daredevil.  Like G.I. Joe, Daredevil was kind of the red-headed stepchild to a hugely popular and lucrative film franchise…like Joe, it hit theaters in a less-than perfect time of the year…like Joe, it was an effects-laden popcorn style flick with questionable acting and a paper-thin plot.  Also like G.I. Joe, it opened to respectible numbers (Daredevil hit around $40 million in February compared to Joe’s $56 million in August), but Daredevil quickly fizzled and died on the vine.

Unlike Joe, though, Daredevil only had a $78 million budget, and yet the payoff still didn’t warrant a sequel.  Hey, I know this is all “negative nancy” talk, just trying to keep perspective.  I love the brand, I enjoyed the film, and I’m dying for more stories in this universe…just don’t want to get myself too hyped up.  🙂