So with not much else to do on a Sunday (well…that’s a lie, I’m just wasting too much time beating this dead horse) I figured I’d do a little checking to Box Office trends and what expectations should be for this weekend, based on what we know already. Of course, much of this post will probably be defunct by this time tomorrow, but where’s the fun in that?
I’ve already reported that G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA actually dropped 16% in attendance from Friday to Saturday. I thought this was a bit distressing, and then I checked some film trends. Now, I’m actually still a little bit distressed about this, but not real upset. Looking at Box Office history this year, here are some big films, and the change in returns from Friday to Saturday of opening weekend, all based on numbers from Box Office Mojo:
- Watchmen – Total Domestic Gross $107 million, International Gross $183 million. Opening weekend gross $55.2 million. Keep in mind, Watchmen was considered a financial failure. Change from Friday to Saturday was -25%.
- Wolverine – Total Domestic Gross $179 million, International Gross $350 million. Opening weekend gross $85 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was -15%.
- Star Trek – Total Domestic Gross $255 million, International Gross $382 million. Opening weekend gross $75 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was +1.3%.
- Terminator: Salvation – Total Domestic Gross $124 million, International Gross $341 million. Opening weekend gross $42.5 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was -1.9%.
- Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – Total Domestic Gross $394 million, International Gross $818 million. Opening weekend gross $109 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was +9%.
In pretty much every case here, the Sunday Box Office also dropped from Saturday, although only 10-15%. Both Wolverine and Watchmen seem to be the benchmarks, since they both dropped double digits from Friday to Saturday. Wolverine dropped another 27% on Sunday, Watchmen dropped 33%. I think those are both excessive, compared to G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA. Just for the sake of argument, I’ll shoot for a 20% decline for The Rise of COBRA from Saturday to Sunday, that would put Sunday’s total gross at $14.4 million. With that 14.4, that then puts the three day total at $54.9 million, which isn’t a bad number. It’s not the $60 million I was hoping to see, but it’s nothing to sneeze at. Of course, if Sunday drops even more, there could be problems.
Looking at Wolverine’s numbers, that film did manage to make over $340 million internationally, while Watchmen floundered at about $182. Let’s hope The Rise of COBRA trends more towards Mutants and less towards Alan Moore…
even tommy shaw doesnt have this much time on his hands.
You have to realize though, Watchmen is a pretty terrible movie. (Not to me I liked it) But to the majority of the Earth, Watchmen is garbage. LONG, convoluted plot. Very little of it makes sense. So outside of the few million Alan Moore fanatics who showed up the first day or so, the rest of the word of mouth was TERRIBLE.
Wolverine was similar. That’s like the 4th X-Men and it took a hit from the movie leak as well as bad reviews.
Joe is getting decent reviews and doesn’t have those other strikes against it. The only thing Joe has working against it is the fact that everyone though this movie was going to blow chunks. But now it’s turned out to be pretty good.
-18% Looks like we are headed for the Wolverine size gross. Should be enough for a sequel and GI Joe has a much bigger appeal around the world does then Watchmen and District 9 is its only competetion for the rest of summer.